“I'm sure it'll be nominated, but I'd be surprised if it won.”

You're talking with a friend of yours about a movie that you saw. She says that the movie is an Oscar contender. You don't think that it will win, so you say:

I'm sure it'll be nominated, but I'd be surprised if it won.

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“I hear that it's a likely Oscar contender.”

You're talking with your friend about movies that you've seen recently. Your friend says that he saw a movie which you heard might win an Academy Award. You say:

I hear that it's a likely Oscar contender.

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