“I'm sure it'll be nominated, but I'd be surprised if it won.”

You're talking with a friend of yours about a movie that you saw. She says that the movie is an Oscar contender. You don't think that it will win, so you say:

I'm sure it'll be nominated, but I'd be surprised if it won.

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“Come on! You've got to at least give it a shot.”

There's an art competition that you were thinking about entering, but now you're thinking you won't enter it because you don't have a chance of winning. You tell your friend that you're not going to enter, but she disagrees. She says:

Come on! You've got to at least give it a shot.

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